Since the beginning of this year, the price of tinplate coils has shown a trend lower than in previous years, and in August, under the influence of many negative factors, it reached a new low level for the year, with the lowest price being 6500 yuan/ton. After entering September, the "traditional peak season" did not show any signs, the market orders did not increase significantly, and the price fell back to 6500 yuan/ton again. It is expected that the price will not show the "peak season" performance in September this year.
Generally speaking, September, as the "traditional peak season", has certain basis to follow. This is mainly due to the fact that this stage is mainly used for packaging related products such as beverages and food, which will lead to a certain degree of increase in market orders. Often, there is a preheating in August, and prices begin to gradually rise about a month in advance. This year, the situation is the opposite, as shown in Figure 1. In August, the price of tinplate coil showed a gradual decline, with a certain rebound at the end of the month, but after entering September, the price fell again. As of September 5th, the price of tinplate coil was 6500 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 11.56% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.08%. Overall, the decline in the price of tinplate coils is mainly influenced by many negative factors such as market demand, merchant mentality, and raw material prices.
The demand side lacks sufficient volume, and merchants have a bearish mentality
From the demand side, the market demand continues to show weaker performance than in previous years, which is bearish on the price of tinplate coils. According to the research conducted by Zhuochuang Information on terminal enterprises that use tinplate coils in the market, their procurement shows a rhythm of rigid demand procurement, with cautious operations and low willingness to stock up; The performance of the consumer side has not recovered as expected, and the market demand has also weakened. And affected by the continuous sluggish performance of tin plated coil prices, the mentality of market participants is mainly bearish. Tin plated coil prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise, and even after entering the third quarter, the market shows a situation of price for volume exchange, with merchants mainly clearing inventory and lowering prices to further lower the price focus.
The cost line has been lowered, driving down the price of tinplate coils
Against the backdrop of sluggish demand, the downward shift in raw material prices for tinplate coils has also driven down their market prices. As shown in Figure 2, as a futures commodity, the spot price of hot-rolled coil is significantly affected by the futures market. Since the third quarter of this year, the market has shown a weak trend, and after entering August, the decline has been more obvious, driving the price of hot-rolled coil to gradually decline. As of September 5th, the price of hot-rolled coils on that day has hit a new low compared to before this year, with a domestic average price of 3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 376 yuan/ton from early August, a decrease of 10.82%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.48%.
Looking ahead to September, it is expected that the price of tinplate coils will show a narrow adjustment trend, with a tendency to stabilize first and then rise, and the average price may slightly increase. On the one hand, from the demand side, there is currently no expectation of a significant increase in volume, and the price of tinplate coils may continue to maintain a low and stable operation in the first half of September; On the other hand, from a cost perspective, the price of hot-rolled coils may gradually decline after reaching a bottom in the first half of September, while the price of tin materials is expected to rise in the second half of September. The price of tinplate coils may be adjusted narrowly due to the upward movement of the cost line.